| Don’t moan, act! Commentary by Dr. Wolfgang Feist, Passive House Institute The credo of economy and politics has not changed for long years, it was Energy prices will stay cheap. All decrees and laws were based on this precondition, such as the Energieeinsparverordnung (EnEV) (Energy Savings Ordinance in Germany) for which the author has rendered an expertise on the profitability in the existing building stock. The ministry of economics had been presetting an energy price of less than 25 Eurocent per litre heating oil or cubic meter natural gas. Still, the expertise is significant today as the results were not dependant on energy prices. Instead, we have shown to what price the tested measures deliver saved energy. These findings can be compared with todays energy prices ( as it is done here). And it becomes clear then that much more far reaching energy efficiency measures, more than provided by the EnEV, are economically sound.
As in the past, short-term energy price forecasts require clairvoyant abilities; but reliable prognoses are hardly possible. Something completely different is the question of future average prices precisely these prices should be at the bottom of each investment in long living economic goods such as buildings. Already in the coming decade price setting factors are pointing up: Firstly, the increasing worldwide demand (at least +50% up to the year 2020, according to the International Energy Agency IEA); Secondly, the recessive exploitation of American and European sources which leads to a greater demand in the Middle East; Thirdly, a foreseeable rise in exploitation costs as the resources are getting less easily exploitable. A forecast of future average energy prices can be found here. All this is not meant to create panic, but gives reason enough to finally act consistently sound. Favourable credit terms are available in many countries in Germany with the new KfW -programme. We do have access to alternatives to the demand competion within the world oil market. These alternatives have been completely developed and are broadly applicable: Insulation, heat recovery, high-quality low-e glazing, condensing boiler techniques, heat pumps, electronically commutated direct current motors (ecm). These and other techniques are already attractive at low energy prizes for the modernisation of old - as well as for new buildings. Committed constructors, architects and building companies have supplied evidence by building thousands of Passive Houses. And the mentioned techniques, if consistently used and coordinated, do not only lessen the energy dependence by some percent but achieve savings of 75 to 90 %. The advantage of investors is not only limited to saved energy costs but thermal comfort, value of living, health and building protection terms are improved as well. And last but not least, the risks are being reduced. The little remaining energy demand can be satisfied for ever with affordable costs and inhabitants of Passive Houses remain unaffected of short-term energy price pushes. In the long run, energy demands may be satisfied by means of renewable energies as the potentials of the different renewable energies are sufficient for the supply given high energy efficiency. The efficient use of energy is thereby in particular within the interest of consumers and investors. Whoever is building inefficiently, following the belief in low energy prices, is acting contrary to his or her self- interest.
Small and medium-sized enterprises have since ever been the pillars of the building industry. Despite of bad general conditions, they have pushed forward development over the past years. This is a domestic market very likely to rise. There are high employment coefficients per investment. Not to speak about the positive contributions to climate protection. It is within our own scope, how strongly we are affected by the turbulences on the world energy market. Improved efficiency can reduce the dependence significantly – and at the same time raise the value of new buildings as well as refurbished existing ones. Let us not moan but act!
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